Advani's blog on Modi means LK is the man to watch this year

If, by design or by accident, we do end up with a mid-term poll this year, the man to watch will be Lal Krishna Advani, the BJP’s previous prime ministerial candidate who led his party to ignominious defeat in 2009. In a blogpost dated 25 March, Advani himself seemed to suggest that Narendra Modi is the man to watch. Though he did not quite say so, news reports interpreted it this way, when all Advani did was discuss a recent Time magazine cover on Modi, the US’s denial of a visa to Modi some years ago, and the US Congressional Research Service’s assessment of the Gujarat Chief Minister’s strengths. In fact, Advani only quotes social scientist Tridip Suhrad from the _Time_magazine story on Modi as saying that “the future belongs to him (Modi).” Advani didn’t say so. [caption id=“attachment_255698” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Eyeing the top job? PTI”]  [/caption] The question to ask is: what is Advani’s reason for this blogpost on Modi? Relations between the two have been a bit stiff ever since Advani began his anti-corruption yatra from Nitish Kumar’s Bihar instead of Modi’s Gujarat. Nitish Kumar and Modi are potential antagonists in any future fight for the prime minister’s post, assuming the BJP manages to make a mark. Many political pundits saw Advani’s yatra as a preparation for the big job in case India accidentally plunged into a general election following the Anna agitation and Modi was not yet ready for it. Perhaps, the best way to interpret the Advani blog is thus to see it as a gesture to Modi indicating that while he may not be entirely out of the race himself, he still sees Modi as an ally. The blog, for example, talks about how Advani brought up the visa issue of Modi with former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Since motives and intentions are seldom stated openly in politics, one has to read between the lines to figure out what is being attempted here. This is the scenario as probably seen from Advani’s angle: though the general betting is still that the UPA will ride out its tenure, there is still a small chance that a political accident – a Mamata withdrawing support for unstated reasons, a bigger scandal (Coalgate, a 2G verdict?) - could trigger a downward spiral, leading to mid-term elections. In this scenario, one can expect the UPA to face serious political headwinds, and if the BJP can get its act together, it is in with a chance. However, the BJP has no leader: Gadkari simply does not have the charisma, Modi cannot leave Gujarat before his assembly elections at the end of the year, and the other two hopefuls – Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley – are still busy gouging each other out in private. That leaves Advani as the land man standing. While it is true that in 2009 Advani was a disaster, the public is not looking for a big saviour this time. It would be happy to have a sensible leader – who does not look like he will lead us to another mess like UPA-2. While the Mulayam Singhs and Nitish Kumars can dream of leading a Third Front or a Federal Front, none will be stable without one of the big two – Congress or BJP – being part of the coalition and heading it. It is simply not possible for state parties to let a leader from another state be PM for too long. This is the lesson from the two United Front governments in the second half of the 1990s. Deve Gowda was brought down. Mulayam Singh and Lalu Yadav cancelled each other out. M Karunanidhi vetoed the idea of another Tamilian (GK Moopanar) being made PM, and political lightweight IK Gujral, too, was brought down quickly. If a coalition can only work with one of the Big Two leading it, this is where Advani might believe he is in with a chance. Nitish Kumar would back him. The rest of the BJP might back him if that is the only way to form a government. The RSS would accept him, if only as an interim arrangement. The only obstacle would be Modi – who might feel cheated in this scenario. From Advani’s angle, it does not make sense to antagonise Modi this year, for he may need his backing. Remember, Advani also gets elected from Gujarat. The deal he could offer is this: back me now, and I will retire in a year or two and back you for PM. This will allow Modi to settle his Gujarat succession plan and then move to the Centre. A straight shift to Modi would never be easy for the BJP, given the fact that its allies have problems on this score. However, with Advani in the middle, both equations can be worked out. It is not difficult to imagine an Advani doing a deal with the RSS to let him be interim head of the party in the run-up to the elections, and then plan for an orderly succession. If these are the calculations going through the 85-year-old’s mind, Advani’s blog on Modi means his hat is still in the ring.