1990s redux: Why 2014 polls could be a communal hate fest

The dark clouds on the political horizon are getting more ominous by the day. The general elections of 2014 are still way off, but communal forces have already started fastening their belts for a showdown with ’enemies’. The war cry is not audible yet, but the drift in the air is hard to miss. It’s only a matter of time religion and politics mixed to generate oppressive heat. Several loose affiliates of the Sangh Parivar have started rallying around Narendra Modi - who else? - and on the other side there are indications that Muslim groups are turning more excitable. It’s difficult to establish a connection between the two at this point and there has been no occasion for a direct conflict yet, but it is known that both feed off each other. The Sangh Parivar wants the BJP to get back to the core ideology - Hindutva - and shape its electoral game plan around it. At their recent meet in New Delhi, top BJP, RSS and VHP leaders are believed have discussed reviving the Ram Temple issue. [caption id=“attachment_611132” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Protests over Vishwaroopam. Agencies.[/caption] Leaders of the BJP and the Sangh will meet spiritual leaders at a saints’ meeting during Maha Kumbh at Allahabad and discuss ways to go about it. Also, there are hints that the VHP and other fringe saffron groups will be actively involved in the elections to shore up the BJP’s prospects. The Muslim organisations, on the other hand, are erupting over one issue or the other. Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen legislator in Andhra Pradesh assembly, Akbaruddin Owaisi, was arrested recently for launching a vitriolic attack on the Hindu community. He was a repeat offender. His aim: to polarise Muslims before the elections. Elsewhere, Muslim organisations are getting more vocal about their identity - the protest over Salman Rushdie at the Jaipur literary festival and the controversy over Kamal Hassan’s movie Vishwaroopam are cases in point. To connect the dots and reach a conclusion at this moment could be premature, but there could be no denying that the communal temper is rising and conscious effort is going it. Once the Ram Temple issue comes to the fore and the hardline Hindutva organisations start fanning out in the country, the division between the communities would be sharper and more acrimonious. This would overshadow all other issues and become the primary theme in the elections. The situation suits both the major players: the Congress and the BJP. The Congress, facing serious allegations of corruption and misgovernance, would prefer it if the focus shifted from its performance over the last five years to something more emotional such as religion. The secularism vs communalism debate would also help it win allies. The BJP is mired in corruption charges too and till now it has not come across as a party with a convincing position on issues it attacks the Congress with. With emotions rising on the Hindutva issue, it could expect to reap the electoral benefits. The prospect of development becoming an electoral issue in the national election appears bleak given the current communal build-up. It’s possible the think tank on both sides would be aware of that. The elevation of Narendra Modi would in any case have created a situation of polarisation - there are not too many buyers for his development agenda and there is slim chance the ghosts of 2002 would stop haunting him. The BJP is doing a smart act by bringing together the entire Sangh Parivar behind it this time. The uninhibited support from the saffrons was missing in the last two elections - in 2004, the party was too busy trumpeting the achievements of Atal Behari Vajpayee, not a favourite of the Sangh; in 2009, the equations were not too comfortable either. This time, the party is keen on making amends, though inviting the risk of losing its modern, liberal veneer. Does that mean we are back to the scenario of the turbulent 1990s? Yes. There is trouble on the horizon. Brace yourself for it.