The rupee is going down, down down. Poor economic growth prospects, rising inflation, a high fiscal and current account deficit as well as no progress on reforms will continue to bruise the rupee. Not hing short of a miracle - or QE3 - will lift the rupee.
The problem with rupee bears is that when the currency is headed down, we think it will continue heading down forever. We think since oil prices are sticky, exports aren’t doing too well and foreign investors are uneasy, the rupee will keep tumbling. But that’s the beauty of price: once the rupee reaches an attractive level, say Rs 55, it will be a bull party. Consider: Infosys’ June earnings guidance takes the rupee at 50.88 to the US dollar. Why wouldn’t they book huge profits at Rs 53-54-55? The rupee could reach a turning point sooner than later.