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Ajay Shah

Ajay Shah studied at IIT, Bombay and USC, Los Angeles. He has held positions at the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research and the Ministry of Finance, and now works at NIPFP where he co-leads the NIPFP-DEA Research Programme. His research interests include policy issues on Indian economic growth, open economy macroeconomics, public finance, financial economics and pensions.ajayshah@mayin.orghttp://www.mayin.org/ajayshahhttp://ajayshahblog.blogspot.com

Dec 27, 2011

Uncomfortable times coming up in real estate?

If business cycle conditions and financial conditions worsen, the problems of borrowing by real estate developers and speculators will get worse. #bank loans #China #India #NotJobsButPassion #Real estate bubble #real estate sector #Realty Bites

Dec 13, 2011

Business cycle effect: Why our growth will be volatile

Bad policy may be lowering the Indian economy's trend rate of growth, but the business cycle will give us more volatility in GDP growth. #Business cycle #GDP growth #Inflation #Monetary policy #NotJobsButPassion #The Long View

Dec 3, 2011

The RBI should forget forex rates and focus on inflation

Everything you wanted to know about the rupee market and how it is behaving now. #Currency Trends #CurrencyWars #NotJobsButPassion #Rupee versus Dollar

Nov 18, 2011

A guide to the eurozone crisis

The only viable solution to the euro crisis is for Germany to take the lead to bail out the rest. But it seems unwilling to do so. #DebtCrisis #Emergency Economic Stabilization Act #Eurozone crisis #NotJobsButPassion

Nov 8, 2011

Is inflation ebbing? The CPI tells quite a different story

The Consumer Price Index inflation is bad. The index grew at an annualised (seasonally adjusted) rate of 20.15 percent in September 2011. As a consequence, the three-month moving average inflation went up from 8 percent in August to 11.77 percent in September. #HowThisWorks #Inflation #Monetary policy #NotJobsButPassion #RBI #RBI Governor

Nov 4, 2011

Gujarat will gain most from Pak MFN, Dubai will lose

The biggest gainer from Pakistan's decision to give India MFN status will be Gujarat whose ports are right next door. Dubai entrepot status will decline. #Connect The Dots #Dubai #India #Indo-Pak trade #Karachi #MFN #Most favoured nation #NotJobsButPassion #Pakistan

Oct 24, 2011

Raising rates will bring down inflation: Here’s why

If the RBI's anti-inflationary stand had been credible, it would work better than trying to be all things to all people #HowThisWorks #Inflation #NotJobsButPassion #Rate Hikes #RBI

Oct 17, 2011

The RBI has failed us on inflation: Time for a rethink

The RBI's anti-inflationary credentials have been suspect since 2006. It did much better during Rangarajan's time in the 1990s, when the credibility of monetary policy was high. #ConnectTheDots #Inflation #Interest rates #NotJobsButPassion #RBI

Oct 7, 2011

Why should finance minister put fresh equity in SBI?

Government-owned banks like SBI should not think it is their right to equity when they need it. They need to do more to plough back retained earnings. #Bank of Baroda #HDFC Bank #NotJobsButPassion #SBI #To The Contrary

Sep 26, 2011

Why the RBI will not mess with the rupee

One should expect greater volatility in the rupee-dollar exchange rates. The RBI cannot defend its value since it is simply not worth it. #Connect The Dots #Exchange rates #NotJobsButPassion #USD-INR
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